Trump is not just playing big; he's betting everything, according to Vadim Denisенко.

The main geopolitical battle of the modern world is not our war. It is a struggle over which side the EU will take: China or the USA. Through his sanctions, Trump is merely accelerating the timeline. Meanwhile, this clearly indicates Ukraine's position within his value system.

1. The logic of Make America Great Again encompasses several significant options:

- maintaining the USA as the world's primary military power;

- preserving the American payment system as the leading one globally;

- keeping the USA as the foremost technological leader (with China as the main competitor);

- a new industrialization of the USA (including infrastructure changes and the emergence of new technologies) must occur, not least through partnerships (with EU manufacturers and Gulf nations playing a key role);

- a redistribution of power in the USA from financiers to producers (USAID is at the top of the pyramid);

- values should occupy the same place they did in the 20th century—they should assist in addressing geopolitical challenges rather than forcing apologies for everything.

2. When we consider the tariffs from this perspective, Trump's logic becomes clear. Minimal tariffs on Chinese goods reflect a desire to avoid price spikes in the States while partially balancing the trade deficit. Mexico serves as a warning to all American states that the Monroe Doctrine is returning. And no one will save them. Notice how quickly Panama surrendered under the complete silence of China. Everyone saw: China will not engage in trade wars. China will wait. Ultimately, China is not yet ready for more active measures and believes it should observe what happens in 6-12 months, wondering if Trump will falter himself.

3. Now regarding the EU. Trump's goal is straightforward—to overturn the negative trade balance and compel Europeans to build factories in the USA in exchange for reduced tariffs. Moreover, with a negative balance against China, it is likely that Europeans will be forced to impose tariffs on China, which is one of Trump's key objectives. As a carrot, he will hold NATO and Europe’s defense against Russia. He will not play with the European Commission; he engages directly with governments. He will bet on right-wing parties, taking them from the Russians. Additionally, this could amplify the trend towards nationalism in Europe.

4. Now concerning Russia. Russia is an obscure, backward entity that threatens US interests in two ways: it strengthens China with resources and partially controls North Korea. North Korea, in turn, threatens the stability of the US's key allies—Japan and South Korea. There is another significant aspect: the Ukrainian case will serve as a precedent for Taiwan. In their strategies, the US will also consider this moment. But globally, Trump's logic is this: Russia needs to be separated from China. If Putin does not want to detach, then Putin must be changed. It seems that the issues of our war are currently postponed, and Putin will be shown how he will be suffocated in an embrace if he does not agree to terms that are clear to Trump. For Trump, it is crucial to resolve three issues: the fracture of the OPEC+ deal and a controlled drop in energy prices while simultaneously replacing Russian oil with other producers; severing relations between Russia and North Korea; weakening relations between Russia and China.

5. For Trump, unfortunately, Ukraine is little more than a dot on the map. This is neither good nor bad. It is a reality. I have written before: we are currently being asked for elections. We have two options: either not hold elections and give free rein to Putin and Trump or attempt to establish rules of the game within the country and conduct these elections. Unfortunately, we do not have good options. But this is part of the story. Secondly, and equally important: we need to develop consolidated theses for all political actors regarding our red lines in negotiations. Without this, we will lose much more.

6. Trump has fallen and risen at least three times in his life. He always plays big and is not afraid to operate on the edge of foul play. For some reason, I feel that after the assassination attempt, he became even more convinced of his divine selection. Hence, he is not just playing big; he has gone all in. This is the main hope for Trump's opponents (both in the USA and worldwide). However, the processes he has initiated and will initiate cannot be stopped in an instant. Therefore, even with certain setbacks, the tracks that have already been laid will not change.

7. I want to emphasize separately: some of our idiots are already claiming that this is the end of globalization. This is not just foolishness; it is a misunderstanding of the processes. Trump is changing the rules of globalization, not abolishing it. And that is a significant difference.