Aliyev publicly humiliated Putin. Stricter measures should follow, according to Alexey Golobutskiy.

Events surrounding the downed Azerbaijani plane by Russian air defense are unfolding interestingly: Putin has even gone so far as to apologize, albeit referencing the treacherous Ukrainian drones that were allegedly trying to shoot it down, while the AZAL plane was caught right in the crossfire. However, Aliyev publicly stated that this was insufficient.

"Putin apologized for the tragic incident that occurred in Russian airspace and once again expressed his deep and sincere condolences to the families of the victims, wishing a speedy recovery to the injured. … The plane was on schedule and was attempting to land at Grozny Airport. At that time, Grozny, Mozdok, and Vladikavkaz were under attack by Ukrainian combat drones, and Russian air defense systems were repelling these assaults."

Nevertheless, Aliyev was not willing to forget the disaster after vague apologies. "The Russian side wants to sweep this matter under the rug, and of course, that does no honor to anyone." Essentially, Aliyev has publicly devalued Putin's words. He has effectively diminished him (and does he expect the vindictive and resentful Putin to overlook this? Unlikely. Thus, Aliyev has reasons to desire a renewed distance from the Kremlin).

What does Aliyev want from Putin? "We clearly conveyed our demands to the Russian side; they were communicated back on December 27. What are they? First, the Russian side must apologize to Azerbaijan. Second, recognize their guilt. Third, punish those responsible, hold them criminally accountable, and provide compensation both to the state and to the affected passengers and crew members. Part of this was already fulfilled yesterday. I hope the rest of our demands will also be met," said Aliyev.

However, the Kremlin has already indicated its stance through official media ("Russia Today"): the blame lies with Ukraine, Russia does not acknowledge any fault, and these are deliberate actions by Ukraine to hinder the improvement of relations between Baku and Moscow. In other words, *** you, Aliyev, no compensation, and certainly no trial for the precise gunners and electronic warfare operators from Kadyrov's forces.

This means that now, when forced to choose between friendly relations with Azerbaijan and the interests of Kadyrov's fighters, Putin has chosen Kadyrov. It seems Putin believes that the repercussions for him and Russia from offending the Kadyrovites will be significantly worse than the consequences of cooling relations with Azerbaijan.

We await Aliyev's reaction. It's unlikely he will remain silent in the face of such an obvious demonstration of his and Azerbaijan's place in the Kremlin's priorities. Initial steps have already been taken: the Azerbaijani Cabinet announced that in two days, starting January 1, they will tighten the rules for the stay of Russian citizens. Russian citizens arriving in Azerbaijan without a visa will not be allowed to stay in the country for more than 90 days within a calendar year.

This is a standard, one could say, form of diplomatic demonstration of grievance. But it is doubtful that Aliyev will stop here. This is clearly insufficient for a convincing distancing from Russia. Therefore, it is evident that further, more stringent measures must follow.