Saturday08 February 2025
lifeukr.net

It's not Ukraine that is depleted, but the state structures: the harsh truth about mobilization - Igor Lutsenko.

Former MP and military officer Igor Lutsenko discusses issues related to mobilization.
Не Украина истощилась, а государственные структуры: горькая реальность мобилизации - Игорь Луценко.

There is a lot of talk, especially among the arrogant, cynically inclined Western circles, about Ukraine being depleted.

This is not true. Ukraine is full of strength, despite all the blows it has endured. Today, I was in Dnipro. Locals gathered for a picnic on the Dnipro cliff. They sacrificed their best spots with the best views for anti-aircraft calculations. Next to their pickups, they drank, ate, played chess, and walked with children – while the barrels of paired machine guns cautiously scanned the skies.

It is not Ukraine that is depleted. It is the officials in state structures who are running out of ideas on how to support the front.

They say there is a shortage of personnel at the front. But how could there be enough when, de facto, there is no compulsory conscription in Ukraine?

I repeat: DE FACTO, military service in Ukraine is voluntary.

Firstly, according to official information, there are 500,000 draft dodgers. Do you know how many have been sent to court over the past two years? Just over three thousand. This means the likelihood that the state will TRY (because a court is not a punishment yet!) to penalize you for evasion is less than one percent. You don’t even have to pay anything.

Secondly, the number of deserters and draft dodgers has quadrupled in the past year. The official data shows 90,000 people. That’s 15 brigades. How many cases have been sent to court for punishment? Just over 2,000, and this is despite the fact that the actual number of draft dodgers is significantly higher – thus we again arrive at the same 1% chance of punishment.

Thirdly, we have, de facto, an open border. I suspect they catch at best 1% of those trying to leave.

Can we say that Ukraine is depleted? No, there are enough human resources; the Ukrainian state simply cannot attract this resource either with a stick or a carrot at the moment. So why be surprised when a full-scale war faces such a shortage of personnel, relying only on volunteers?

No one other than the military is currently applying pressure on draft dodgers. The Territorial Recruitment Centers (TRC) are the only structure trying to coerce anyone, though this is not really their function. The police, the State Bureau of Investigation (SBI), and the prosecutor's office are trying to stay in the shadows, even though they are, by definition, a coercive apparatus.

By the way. Is anyone looking for human resources abroad? How much is Ukraine paying recruiters who bring foreigners to serve? Is it really impossible to find at least 20,000 recruits a month among the billions of people in loyal or neutral countries? I am not ready to believe that.

Ukraine is full of strength. The combat units that operate with the best equipment have organized themselves well – they are showing excellent results. If we inject people and resources into them, and do not hinder them with idiotic orders – we will stop the Russian Federation where it is now.

Stopping the Russian offensive – stopping the Special Military Operation (SMO) – would mean losing the purpose of the war. The Russian Federation will crumble. Explain this to those Western intellectuals.