ISW predicts that Russia will annex Belarus within the next decade, and even Putin's death won't halt this process.

Russia is effectively annexing Belarus: although this process is not yet complete, it has already reached a stage where the Kremlin can threaten Eastern NATO countries and Ukraine through its satellite. To achieve this, Moscow aims to gain control over the geographical, economic, and human resources of its neighboring country. This process will not cease even with a potential departure of Putin.

Source. This is stated in a study by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Kremlin is close to the de facto annexation of Belarus, and at the current pace, it is likely to achieve this within a decade, according to the ISW report titled “The Silent Conquest of Belarus by Russia.”

Analysts at the institute believe that this is a long-term, well-thought-out strategy by the Kremlin being implemented in military, political, and economic spheres.

If the de facto subjugation of Belarus is completed, it “will become the first successful annexation of an entire country since World War II,” the report states.

This development would have serious implications for the security of countries on NATO's eastern flank, as Russia could use Belarus to prepare an attack, for instance, on the Baltic states and Poland, to say nothing of Ukraine, ISW writes.

The institute's analysts warn that for its goals, the Kremlin will utilize both the population of the country, which numbers 9.155 million, its geostrategic position on NATO's eastern flank, and its economic resources.

Russia has already used Belarus as a launchpad for its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, gained access to its military bases, illegally “pushes” immigrants from poor countries in Africa and the Middle East through it to EU countries, and has deployed nuclear weapons there (“several dozen modern nuclear munitions,” according to Alexander Lukashenko).

The strategic position of Belarus will play a crucial role in Russia's military posture after 2025:

it will increase the Russian military threat directly on NATO's border,

enhance the capability of Russian forces to threaten the Suwalki Corridor and the likelihood of isolating Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia from the rest of the alliance in the event of its capture,

increase NATO's resource needs for deterrence and, if necessary, repelling Russian attacks,

heighten Ukraine's defense needs, diverting troops from the main front line against Russia in the east and south of the country.

Expecting the creeping annexation of Belarus to cease in post-Putin Russia is also unrealistic, ISW states. Moscow's efforts to annex Belarus represent a significant state initiative, the importance of which has firmly taken root in the minds of officials over the past two decades:

“Putin has successfully institutionalized the erroneous notion in Russian geopolitical thinking that Belarusians, like Ukrainians, are merely temporarily lost parts of the Russian nation that the Russian Federation must reunite. Any strong politician from the upper echelons of power who leads post-Putin Russia will undoubtedly ideologically support the ‘reunification’ of Belarus with Russia,” the report states.

Background. A few days ago, it was reported that Belarus had deployed about 1500 troops to the border with Ukraine.