In 2024, every square kilometer of Ukrainian territory captured cost Russia 102 soldiers, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In 2024, Russian forces captured 4,168 square kilometers, primarily consisting of fields and small settlements, including areas in the Kursk region. Meanwhile, the enemy suffered the loss of 427,000 of its military personnel.

This is mentioned in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to the institute's analysts, each square kilometer of seized Ukrainian territory cost the Russians 102 soldiers. “Russian forces gained 2,356 square kilometers at the cost of approximately 125,800 losses during the period of intensified Russian offensive operations in September, October, and November 2024,” the report states. It notes that during this period, the Russians captured 56.5% of all the territory seized last year.

Analysts, referencing Medvedev's statement about 440,000 recruits who signed contracts for military service with the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2024, suggest that Russia is likely recruiting just enough military personnel to replace its recently high loss rates.

In December, the advance slowed down: Russian forces captured 593 square kilometers in a month, or 18.1 square kilometers per day. In November, the enemy advanced significantly faster, capturing 27.96 square kilometers per day.

The Russian military command focused on capturing the remaining parts of the Donetsk region and establishing a buffer zone in the northern Kharkiv region in 2024 but failed to achieve these objectives. Throughout the past year, the enemy captured four medium-sized settlements – Avdiivka, Selydove, Vuhledar, and Kurakhove, the largest of which had a pre-war population of just over 31,000 people. The Russians spent about four months capturing Avdiivka at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, and two months each attempting to capture and encircle Selydove and Kurakhove in 2024.

“The Russian forces need to capture approximately 8,559 square kilometers, including significant Ukrainian defensive positions and major cities along Ukraine's fortress belt, to seize the rest of the Donetsk region,” ISW states. For this, Russia would need a little over two years, provided that the offensive is limited solely to the Donetsk region and the enemy maintains last year's pace.

Ukrainian forces must still halt the advance of Russian troops in their priority sectors, and Western assistance remains critically important for Ukraine's ability to stabilize the front line in 2025. “Ukrainian forces, supported by Western allies, must work on integrating Ukrainian drone operations, ensuring sufficient resources for artillery and long-range strikes, as well as engaging Ukrainian infantry units to defend against Russia's offensive and undermine Putin's theory of victory in 2025,” analysts believe.