No one doubts that the plane was shot down, not even the Z-military, who have reported on it. I believe Russia would be willing to acknowledge this part of the story, perhaps saying something like, "drones were flying, there was a mistake, it happens..."
However, there is a significantly more important and truly sinister aspect to this situation, one that Moscow is currently struggling to confront.
Realizing that instead of a drone, a missile hit the plane, and that this aircraft was barely airborne, the Russian authorities quickly decided to sink it in the sea to cover up all traces of the air defense fire on the aircraft.
I think this was an instinctive action of a psychopathic criminal trying to eliminate an accidental witness to his crime. This logic is referred to as "throwing all ends into the water."
As a result, the pilots were forbidden from landing at any Russian airports.
The plane could not return to Azerbaijan over the Caucasus range—due to hydraulic failure, it was no longer gaining altitude, and the cabin had also lost pressure.
The Russians sent the aircraft to the sea—essentially to its certain death. However, the pilots "let down" their executioners. They not only managed to bring it to Kazakhstan but also managed to land the plane in such a way that half of the passengers survived, and these individuals can recount what really happened. Upon reflection, this is truly a miracle.
And now the essence of this story is not even that the Russian Armed Forces shot down a civilian aircraft (which has unfortunately become almost commonplace), but that the Kremlin attempted to erase the traces of the crime by sinking the plane and the still-living witnesses in the Caspian Sea.
This can no longer be termed a "tragic mistake." Someone in Moscow consciously issued a cold-blooded order to eliminate 68 passengers of the Azerbaijani plane, attributing its crash to a bird strike.
Who could have given such an order? It is known who. In Russia, there is only one person with enough power and authority—Vladimir Putin.
And now, as always in such situations, he has hidden away, burrowed under a log, sitting quietly and not drawing attention. He waits.
Meanwhile, his people are trying to smooth things over at least publicly. They are negotiating, intimidating, and offering bribes. But I doubt that this will be effective in this case.
The story has turned out to be too wild, even by modern Russian standards.
UPD: Azerbaijan is currently behaving absolutely correctly. They have refused any "assistance" (presumably referring to bribes) from Chechnya, demanding acknowledgment of guilt, apologies, and compensation from Russia.