Putin now faces a choice between Kadyrov and Erdogan, which could become a black swan event for Russia, says Dmitry Zolotukhin.

Who knows, perhaps this will become that black swan which leads to change. It seems that the Kremlin's macho man will not be able to endure and will continue to humiliate his counterpart, who will explain everything to Erdogan.

In turn, Erdogan will decide that it's enough of playing with this subdued figure, as it interferes with business.

It's worth mentioning that Turkey has already shot down a Russian plane. As far as I remember, nobody apologized back then. The downing was entirely legitimate. There was a Russian military aircraft that intruded into Turkish airspace and did not respond to radio requests.

In this case, Aliyev has voiced his commitments to his audience regarding demands from the Kremlin.

1. Apologize (already done by Putin in a phone call);

2. Acknowledge guilt (this has not been done, as the media reported that Putin apologized for the "tragedy occurring," allegedly on its own, over Russian territory);

3. Punish those responsible – that is, the incompetent air defense operators of Kadyrov, whom Kadyrov must hand over.

What problems should you pay attention to here!

Firstly, there are issues with acknowledging guilt since it is unclear what exactly should be accepted as guilt.

The fact is that there is no legal regime in Chechnya under which the "Pantsir-S1" air defense system could operate. There are no official documents that would allow the crew of the "Pantsir-S1" to conduct combat operations around the city of Grozny and its airports. Well, there might be some "orders," but the "SVO" is conducted 1000 km away from Grozny. Therefore, either it has to be formally recognized that the SVO has slightly expanded recently, or it must be acknowledged that the crew of the "Pantsir-S1" acted on their own discretion.

And, as in the case of Strelkov and the "Buk-M1" crew, they pressed the button themselves, and Putin had nothing to do with it.

If such nonsense had happened in Buryatia, there would be no problems.

But, the nonsense occurred in the feudal possession of the terrible Don-Don, who will not hand over his own, because if he does, his own will betray him even faster.

This raises very significant questions.

Secondly, Aliyev's demand is to punish the guilty.

The guilty are subordinates of Don-Don and, consequently, he himself.

Don-Don is untouchable. You cannot punish Don-Don.

And, you cannot avoid punishing Don-Don because that is what Aliyev is demanding.

In other words, either you ruin relations with a key vassal who maintains a super-loyal praetorian guard, or you ruin relations with Erdogan’s friend, who has already given you a bit of lard for your skin in Syria and wouldn’t mind giving you some more.

Putin is currently in a bind; he either loses Kadyrov or he loses Erdogan.