The World Bank has downgraded its GDP forecast for 2025. What is the new assessment?

The World Bank forecasts that Ukraine's economic growth will slow to 2.0% in 2025, assuming that the war continues throughout the year.

This information is reported in the Global Economic Prospects by the World Bank for January 2025.

Recall that in June 2024, the World Bank projected an average GDP growth rate for Ukraine of 5.8% per year for 2025–2026, provided that active hostilities continue throughout 2024 and subsequently become moderate.

Today, according to the World Bank's estimates, growth in Ukraine is expected to slow to 3.2%, primarily due to reduced energy capacities and winter power outages, which have hampered trade and industrial production growth. Despite these challenges and ongoing attacks on infrastructure, the economy has shown growth.

“It is projected that Ukraine's growth will slow to 2% in 2025, assuming that active hostilities continue throughout the year. A steady recovery of 7% is expected in 2026, provided that active hostilities cease, supported by investments in consumption and reconstruction,” the statement reads.

Previously, the IMF updated its baseline scenario, according to which the war between Russia and Ukraine will end by the end of 2025. This scenario anticipates economic growth for Ukraine in 2025 of 2.5–3.5% and an acceleration of growth to 5.3% in 2026.

Background. Earlier, Mind reported that for the year 2024, GDP growth in Ukraine is expected to be 4%. Of this, 0.64%, or over 88 billion UAH, is the result of the implementation of the "Made in Ukraine" policy.