The IMF has revised its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine.

The International Monetary Fund has improved its GDP growth forecast for Ukraine to 4% this year. In 2025, a slowdown is expected – to 2.5-3.5%.

This information is mentioned in the official statement from the Fund following the sixth review of the EFF program for Ukraine.

The decline in dynamics reflects potential consequences of damage to the energy infrastructure, as well as a shortage of labor in Ukraine, the IMF noted. 

In the September forecast, real GDP growth was expected to be around 2.5-3.5% by the end of the year, with inflation projected at 9%. In October, inflation reached 9.7% year-on-year, attributed to rising food and labor costs. At the same time, inflation expectations remain stable, the Fund emphasized. 

By the end of October 2024, gross international reserves amounted to $36.6 billion, thanks to continued significant external official support. However, risks remain extremely high due to uncertainties regarding the intensity and duration of the war, including ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure.

The Fund also noted that the additional budget for 2024 and the state budget for 2025 meet the program parameters. The budget deficit in 2025 is expected to reach 19% of GDP, reflecting ongoing expenditure needs due to the continuing war.

Recall that on November 19, the IMF and Ukrainian authorities at the staff level agreed on the sixth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Ukraine will receive about $1.1 billion.